Texas Power Grid Holds Up During String of 100-Degree Days

(Bloomberg) -- The Texas power grid is withstanding a string of triple-digit temperature days in the state, spurring households and businesses to use a record amount of electricity. 

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator known as Ercot, expects to have ample power supplies to meet demand Sunday after grid data earlier showed a narrow surplus that, if it persisted, could have triggered emergency conditions. Power prices had jumped more than 800% to as much as $2,500 megawatt-hour in the day-ahead market for Sunday afternoon on concern over tight supplies. 

Demand forecasts were also scaled back from record levels as the day wore on. Power consumption Sunday evening is expected to peak at just over 82 gigawatts, according to Ercot’s website. On Saturday, demand nearly broke the all-time high of about 83.6 gigawatts reached on Aug. 1 and had been expected to top that on Sunday. 

Texans are using more electricity than ever and demand during peak hours, when grids can be most strained to meet air-conditioning needs, is rising faster than anywhere else in the country. It’s also the first summer that consumption on the hottest days cannot be met by traditional power plants running on natural gas, coal and nuclear alone, though renewables have kept a comfortable buffer in place. 

There is still concern that the grid is vulnerable to a combination of circumstances — high demand and power plant outages — that triggered blackouts during a deadly winter storm in February 2021. 

For much of this summer, solar has been performing as expected or better during these tough conditions. While wind generation is more volatile because of swings in wind speeds, it does tend to ramp up heading into sunset, helping to offset some of the drop in solar generation. 

Much of Texas continues to be under excess heat warnings until 8 p.m. local time on Monday, with expected temperatures of at least 105F (40.5C) or heat indexes at 114 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. 

Power usage on the state grid is poised to surpass the current record every day over the next week, and Ercot’s outlook shows the grid has ample supplies throughout. 

Day-ahead power for Monday for the peak price hour fell by two thirds to about $917 a megawatt-hour. While this indicates less concern about grid stress versus Sunday, it’s still up from Saturday’s high of about $275.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.