Natural Gas to Hit $3 by 2025 on AI Boom, Haynes and Boone Says

(Bloomberg) -- US natural gas is expected to reach the $3 mark as soon as next year as electricity-hungry data centers drive demand for the power-plant fuel, according to law firm Haynes and Boone LLP.

An unseasonably mild North American winter and ample supplies sank US gas futures to within six cents of a 28-year low in recent months, heightening concerns about so-called borrowing bases among drillers, according to Haynes and Boone’s survey of private equity firms, energy producers and oilfield-service companies. 

The glut-driven price drop also prompted some companies to curb hedging aimed at shielding them from market volatility, the survey found. The last time gas was above $3 per million British thermal units was mid-January.

“We’re seeing producers hedge a little less aggressively, which could be a nod to those rock-bottom natural gas prices,” said Kim Mai, a partner in Haynes and Boone’s energy practice. “It shows they’re nimble and can adjust their strategies as the market changes.”

As for oil, the survey found respondents largely bullish, with one-fourth expecting a significant increase in bankers’ willingness to lend to crude-focused drillers.

“The oil market has newfound positivity, with borrowing base increases possible for some producers,” said partner Kraig Grahmann. But natural gas market distress is “countering the oil boom.” 

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