New York Grid Sees Peak Power Demand Rising 10% This Summer

(Bloomberg) -- The New York grid is forecasting that peak power demand for the state will increase 10% this summer after unusually mild weather last year.

For now, the New York Independent System Operator has indicated that it has plenty of supplies on hand to meet the rising demand, according to a statement Friday.

A blazing heat wave, though, could quickly deplete reserves and trigger a grid emergency, according to the grid operator. If daily temperatures reach 95F (35C) for three consecutive days or more, there will likely be a shortage of power supplies. The hotter the weather is, the bigger that deficit would be, raising the risks of blackouts. 

The New York grid, like other parts of the country, is starting to see demand growth rebound amid the push to electrify the economy. This is adding strain to aging infrastructure, and the US is struggling to bring online enough power plants to replace a wave of older generating units that have retired. In extreme conditions, consumers are increasingly asked to help keep the grid stable by conserving power use. 

Electricity usage is expected to rise to 33.3 gigawatts this summer from about 30.2 gigawatts the previous year, the New York ISO said. The grid has about 40.7 gigawatts of supplies on hand. One gigawatt is typically enough to serve as many as 1 million homes on the state grid. 

The New York ISO is forecasting a shortage of about 1.4 gigawatts if average daily temperatures reach 95F for three consecutive days or more, and that deficit widens to more than 3 gigawatts in 98F heat. The grid has about 3.3 gigawatts of supply it can tap under emergency conditions, which includes programs to curtail usage.

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