Arctic Weather Blast to Put Strain on Europe’s Energy Systems

(Bloomberg) -- A blast of Arctic air will bring icy temperatures and low wind speeds to Europe over the next week, putting pressure on energy systems already struggling with depleted natural gas inventories.

There are warnings for ice and snow across parts of the UK, France, Germany and Spain. The temperature in cities like London and Paris — which soared close to 20C (68F) last weekend — will dip below zero on Friday. That will push up power demand just as generation from solar and wind drop — a combination known as “Dunkelflaute.”

The frigid air is being pulled in by high pressure to the south of Iceland, according to Honor Criswick, a meteorologist at the UK’s Met Office. “Through the rest of the week it’s going to get even colder,” she said.

Europe is facing a challenging stockpiling season after higher gas usage this winter caused rapid withdrawals from storage sites, pushing reserves to the lowest levels since 2022. That will make it harder to replenish inventories when the heating season ends on March 31, especially as summer contracts are more expensive than for the following winter.

The cold front is forecast to tamp down wind power generation in the UK and Germany this week, according to analysis by Matthew Dobson, a meteorologist with the weather analytics firm Met Desk. The conditions also likely mean poor solar energy production across parts of Germany, France and Italy, he said, though skies are expected to be clearer in the UK and the Netherlands.

Solar levels in Germany are set to plunge by more than half from last week’s daily peak of 40 gigawatts, which equated to about two-thirds of the power output of France’s fleet of nuclear reactors. 

Still, wind and solar generation are forecast to rebound somewhat next week, Dobson said.

The freezing weather could foreshadow another cold snap later this month or in early April. A band of high-altitude Arctic winds known as the polar vortex recently collapsed, triggering a “severe stratospheric warming” event on March 8, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

This high-altitude warming — which happens around this time every year — often frees up a band of Arctic air and a high-pressure system that weeks later drags a cold wave across Europe. Another cold blast isn’t guaranteed, but it happens about 70% of the time, the Met Office’s Criswick said.

“The forecast is showing hints of this happening,” she said.

The prospect of cold periods in March has been in the cards for weeks, but forecast models have seesawed, partly because of uncertainty around the timing and impact of the polar vortex’s collapse.

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