Poland Ready to Help Ukraine If Slovakia Cuts Off Power in Gas Spat

(Bloomberg) -- Poland is prepared to step up electricity exports to Ukraine if Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico follows through on his threat to cut off back-up power supplies to the war-torn country, a senior official said on Sunday. 

The Polish government stands ready to boost domestic power production to compensate for any imbalances that Ukraine’s strained system would suffer in the event of a Slovak move, according to the official, who asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

Warsaw’s assurances come amid an escalating row over the future of gas transit through Ukraine. Fico made the threat two days ago, when he said Slovakia would stop supplying electricity that Ukraine urgently needs during network outages, if necessary. Almost three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bratislava still relies on cheap gas from Gazprom PJSC, undermining a push by the European Union to reduce reliance on Russian energy.

The clock is ticking on Russian gas flows through Ukraine to Europe, which are set to end on Dec. 31 when the current arrangement expires. While Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly stated he won’t permit gas that benefits the Kremlin’s war machine to transit his country from January, he has signaled he’d be open to transporting the fuel from countries other than Russia if the European Commission so requests.

The commission, which before the war helped broker transit agreements between Kyiv and Moscow, is staying out of negotiations. Instead, it has stressed that alternatives sources are available and that the region’s gas storage levels are high.

While the EU aims to phase out sourcing fossil fuels from Russia by 2027, gas hasn’t been part of sanctions the bloc has taken against Moscow since the February 2022 invasion. That means companies are still permitted to conclude contracts and continue imports if those agreements are in line with existing EU regulations. 

Energy analysts have pointed out that, even if a deal is reached to continue transit via Ukraine, it will only be temporary as the commission prepares a roadmap to end the bloc’s energy imports from Russia. That strategy is set to be unveiled in February.

Russia has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since March, destroying about half its power-generating capacities and causing blackouts across the country. Ukraine heavily relies on imports, including from Slovakia. 

Slovakia continues to receive Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline that transits Ukraine. Kyiv could halt those supplies in a possible counter-move, if Slovakia does stop electricity exports, a separate person familiar with the situation said on Saturday.

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