China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War

(Bloomberg) -- The US has boosted sales of liquefied natural gas to China this year, although the surge may not last if the incoming Trump administration collides with Beijing over trade.

China imported 63% more of the super-chilled fuel from the US in the first 10 months of the year compared to the same period in 2023, according to Chinese customs data released on Wednesday. That lifted the US to fifth in the roster of Beijing’s suppliers, behind Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia.

Although the 3.9 million tons shipped so far this year is only about 6% of China’s total, Chinese buyers have contracted for 14 million tons of US LNG starting from 2026, according to BloombergNEF.

If Washington presses ahead with a threatened 60% tariff on Chinese goods, Beijing’s retaliation could include duties on American gas. That’s what happened during the last trade war when Trump was in office, which brought US gas exports to China to a juddering halt for much of 2019.  

Of course, China could also use its gas-buying heft as a trade negotiating chip, promising to buy more of the fuel from the US in an attempt to narrow its trade surplus.

On the Wire

Every year, billions of dollars of sanctioned Iranian oil finds its way to China, even though on paper the country hasn’t imported a single drop in more than two years. Supplies from Malaysia, a conduit of those cargoes to China, hit a record in October.

China’s Luckin Coffee agreed to buy an equivalent of 4 million bags of beans from the world’s top exporter Brazil between 2025 and 2029, signaling continued demand from one of the fastest growing markets. 

China’s CATL is in talks to establish battery recycling operations in Europe, adding to its footprint in the region as the company prepares to start cell production in Hungary.

The Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing unless noted.)

Wednesday, Nov. 20:

• China sets monthly loan prime rates, 09:00
• China’s 3rd batch of Oct. trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
• China Car Charging and Battery Swapping Conference in Taiyuan, Shanxi, day 1
• China Intl Lithium Conference in Chengdu, Sichuan, last day
• China Intl PV and Storage Conference in Chengdu, Sichuan, last day

Thursday, Nov. 21:

• China Car Charging and Battery Swapping Conference in Taiyuan, Shanxi, day 2

Friday, Nov. 22:

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:00
• China Car Charging and Battery Swapping Conference in Taiyuan, Shanxi, last day

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