Oil Edges Lower After Surging Last Week on Geopolitical Risks

(Bloomberg) -- Oil edged lower, after rising the most in almost two months last week as geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East kept investors on edge.

Brent crude slipped below $75 a barrel after jumping almost 6% last week, with West Texas Intermediate near $71. Russia’s war in Ukraine has escalated with the use of longer-range missiles by both sides, raising concern that crude flows could be affected.

Meanwhile, Iran said it will increase its nuclear fuel-making capacity after being censured by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, as the OPEC producer braces for potential sanctions under a second Trump administration.

“The IAEA censure and Iran’s response heightens the likelihood that Trump will look to enforce sanctions against Iran’s oil exports when he comes into power,” putting about 1 million barrels a day of supply at risk, said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Russian crude flows may also be affected following the intensification of the war in Ukraine, he said.

Oil has traded in a range of about $6 a barrel since the middle of October — alternating between weekly gains and losses — as concerns that geopolitical tensions would impact supply offset expectations of a glut in 2025. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet this weekend to decide on production, and banks including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. expect it to delay a planned increase for a third time.

Timespreads are showing increased bullishness, with most spreads moving further into backwardation, where near-term prices are more expensive than those further out. Brent’s three-month spread was at $1.21 a barrel in backwardation, compared with 70 cents at the start of last week.

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