Oil Falls on China Demand Woes Even as Market Remains Rangebound

(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell after Chinese stimulus measures disappointed speculators, but not enough to jolt prices from the narrowest trading band since July.

West Texas Intermediate has traded in a roughly $3 range this week, with investors in wait-and-see mode following Donald Trump’s election victory. Uncertainty about how the president-elect will handle the Middle East conflict and Iranian oil exports has fueled high volatility while tamping down liquidity. Still, renewed concerns about demand in China, the world’s largest oil consumer, sent crude 2.5% lower to trade near $70 a barrel Friday.

“Crude oil is trying to figure out if Trump is good or bad for crude oil, with volatility elevated until a central theme comes along and establishes a trend,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “It is increasingly looking like the early driver is going to be Chinese demand destruction.”

Beyond the election, crude was swayed by OPEC+ delaying its planned output hikes by a month, a storm that shut some production in the Gulf of Mexico and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. All told, oil is on pace for a narrow gain for the week.

Friday reports that the Department of Energy bought 2.4 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve failed to capture traders attention amid the uncertain environment. 

Among the competing theories for how Trump will sway crude, Citigroup Inc. analysts said Trump’s presidency may be net bearish for prices on higher domestic production and tariffs that will weigh on the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Plc said US producers won’t necessarily heed his call for more drilling. 

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