Hurricane Milton’s Category 5 Winds Intensify on Path to Florida

(Bloomberg) -- Milton exploded into the Atlantic’s strongest hurricane this year, bearing down as a catastrophic Category 5 storm on a Florida region still struggling to recover from Helene’s devastation.

Milton’s top winds have reached 175 miles (281 kilometers) per hour, up from 90 mph at 1 a.m. local time Monday, the US National Hurricane Center said in a 1 p.m. local time advisory. Milton now bests Hurricane Beryl, which raked Texas, Mexico and the Caribbean in July, as the most powerful Atlantic storm this season.

With winds this intense, Milton is capable of collapsing homes, flattening trees and triggering power outages that could last weeks to months. It’s difficult for hurricanes to maintain their maximum strength for long, however, so Milton may weaken as it nears Florida’s west coast. Only four Category 5 hurricanes have hit the US mainland, including Michael, which struck Florida’s Panhandle in 2018.

Widespread electricity outages are likely and a small shift in Milton’s trajectory can determine whether it strikes a densely populated area or not, said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has declared an emergency in 51 counties. 

“Please, if you are in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate,” Kevin Guthrie, the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said at a briefing Monday. “Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave.”

It isn’t clear exactly where Milton will make landfall. Various computer forecast models are at odds and the hurricane center says errors of as much as 100 miles are possible in the days before a storm comes ashore. Milton will likely make landfall between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. Wednesday, said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. 

“Milton’s remarkable rapid intensification is continuing,” Eric Blake, a forecaster at the hurricane center, wrote in his outlook. Only two other hurricanes — Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 — have strengthened as quickly, he added. 

Hurricane Milton’s jump in strength comes from hot Gulf of Mexico waters that also intensified the deadly Helene less than two weeks ago. Roys said a ridge of high pressure that’s setting temperature records in Phoenix and across the Southwest is helping steer Milton on an unusual track from west to east across the Gulf. No storm has blazed such a path since 1900.

Milton will likely cause between $40 billion to $75 billion in damages and losses, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research, said in an X post. 

In addition to packing ferocious winds, Milton is forecast to push a wall of water on shore than may reach as high as 12 feet (3.7 meters) in Tampa Bay and along the coast, including Bradenton and Sarasota, the hurricane center said.

 “There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge from Milton for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday,” the hurricane center said. “Residents should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.”

NASA and SpaceX have postponed Thursday’s launch of the agency’s multibillion-dollar Europa Clipper mission to explore Jupiter’s icy moon. The agency and SpaceX have launch opportunities until Wednesday, Nov. 6.

Milton will be the second major storm to strike Florida in less than two weeks and the fifth hurricane to hit the US this year. At least 227 people died when Hurricane Helene struck Florida’s Big Bend area in late September and then spread flooding rains into Appalachian Mountains, wreaking havoc across the region. Nearly half of all hurricane deaths come from drowning caused by storm surge and inland flooding.

Milton threatens to inflict wind damage in the northern two-thirds of Florida’s citrus belt this week, according to Commodity Weather Group. Orange juice futures traded in New York rose as much as 4.3% Monday. For the second time in two weeks, Amtrak has canceled some trains in Florida and halted others at Jacksonville, the federally funded rail carrier said.

US natural gas futures sank more than 4% as Milton headed toward Florida’s western coastline. Traders are anticipating a drop in demand for gas to power plants if the storm knocks out electricity. Meanwhile, Chevron Corp. shut in oil production at the Blind Faith platform in the Gulf ahead of the hurricane.

In addition to Milton, the hurricane center is now watching an area of low pressure between Florida’s east coast and the Bahamas that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next week.

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