Israel Eyes Deal to End Lebanon Combat After Weakening Hezbollah

(Bloomberg) -- Israel is considering a deal to end the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon that would see the militant group’s fighters move away from the Israeli border, after assessing its rocket arsenal has been mostly expended or destroyed. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met top aides late on Tuesday to discuss a US-shepherded cease-fire proposal, his spokesperson said. The White House is sending two of President Joe Biden’s most senior Middle East envoys, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, to Israel on Thursday, another Israeli official said.

The plan, if agreed, will lead to a 60-day suspension of hostilities while mediators craft a lasting peace deal to remove Hezbollah from the border area and bolster the number of United Nations peacekeepers there, Israel’s Channel 12 TV reported. Many obstacles still need to be overcome, however, as myriad failed attempts to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have demonstrated.

Hezbollah started firing missiles and drones at Israel a day after the war with Hamas erupted last October, and has consistently said it will continue fighting until there’s a cease-fire in the Palestinian territory.

Hezbollah’s position on the latest proposal is unclear. It’s suffered heavy losses in the past six weeks or so, including the assassination of its long-standing leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstike on Beirut. On Tuesday, Hezbollah elected its deputy, Naim Qasem, to succeed Nasrallah.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas are backed by Iran and considered terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.

“The war in the north will be over by the end of the year,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told reporters on Tuesday, referring to the Lebanese front, and added that 2025 “will not be a year of war, it will be a year of exiting the war.”

The developments have helped to push down oil prices. Brent crude sunk around 6% across two sessions before a partial recovery on Wednesday, also due to Israel avoiding Iran’s most sensitive infrastructure — such as oil and nuclear facilities — when it carried out an expected strike on the Islamic Republic on Saturday.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking on Tuesday, said Hezbollah’s chain of command is now demolished and estimated its missile and rocket capability is 20% of what it was pre-conflict.

Still, daily launches from Lebanon into Israel continue, albeit on a smaller scale than a few weeks ago.  On Wednesday, the Israeli military sounded sirens in parts of the Galilee region due to what it described as an incoming missile which broke up in mid-air.

Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid said he is receiving updates from the government on efforts to wind down fighting in Lebanon.

“I think it would be right to achieve a diplomatic victory,” he said to Israel’s Army Radio.

The conflict has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on each side of the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel’s attacks across Lebanon in the last six weeks have killed more than 2,000 people and displaced around 1.2 million, according to the Lebanese government. Almost 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed due to Hezbollah’s strikes over the last year.

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