Israel Ramps Up Gaza, Lebanon Strikes a Year After Hamas Attacks

(Bloomberg) -- As the Middle East marks a year since the deadly Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel is locked in a multi-front war with no clear end, sending troops back to northern Gaza and keeping up intense aerial attacks and a limited ground maneuver in Lebanon. 

At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is weighing how to respond to Iran, which launched a salvo of almost 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state last week. Security forces in Israel and abroad are also on high alert for potential terror attacks from Iranian proxies on Monday’s symbolic date.  

Israel’s military launched an aerial and ground offensive in Gaza over the weekend, thought to be the largest in months, underlining the complexity of defeating Hamas a year after the militant group stormed into Israel, killing 1,200 people. 

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 26 people died after two strikes on Deir al Balah targeted a former school and mosque used as shelters for the displaced. Israel’s military said they were being used as Hamas command centers, intentionally embedded within civilian infrastructure. 

In all, more than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza the past year, according to the health ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties. More than 1,500 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon in recent weeks and around one million have been displaced, according to Lebanese officials. 

In northern Gaza, ground forces launched an operation in Jabaliya after issuing an evacuation order thought to be the largest since the early months of the war. 

The Israeli army said there were indications of “terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area of Jabaliya, as well as efforts by Hamas to rebuild its operational capabilities in the area.” The Israeli Air Force struck dozens of military targets to assist ground troops. 

The revived offensive in Gaza underscores Hamas’ ability to regroup, at least partially. Although Israel has widely disrupted the group’s military infrastructure over the past year, it hasn’t achieved the goal of dismantling its governing capabilities. Israel also hasn’t managed to bring home some 100 hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7 and still held in Gaza. About half of the hostages are thought to be alive. 

In Lebanon, Israel conducted what it said were “targeted strikes” on Beirut aimed at Hezbollah weapons storage facilities and terrorist infrastructure sites. It also targeted what it said were facilities used by Hezbollah’s intelligence-gathering branch. 

Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran, are considered by the US to be terrorist groups. 

In the past two weeks, Israel has mounted a de facto air, ground and naval siege to prevent Iran from smuggling new weapons and munitions supplies to Hezbollah. The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of strikes focused mainly on Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as on south Lebanon and the eastern part of Bekaa, which connects Lebanon and Syria.

In their ground maneuver started last week, Israeli troops are operating in villages close to the nations’ border, and are said to have dismantled some 2,000 Hezbollah targets — including weapons and underground infrastructure — that had been planned for use by Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces in an Oct. 7-style invasion of Israel. 

IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said late Saturday that 440 Hezbollah operatives – 30 of them commanders of various ranks – were killed.

Hezbollah has launched almost 1,000 rockets and missiles at vast regions across Israel’s north in recent days in what’s seen as some level of rehabilitation of its firing capabilities.  

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens have left their homes in south Lebanon since hostilities started, and at a faster pace in recent weeks. Israel has added the safe return of at least 60,000 displaced residents in the north to its war goals.

At this point, the biggest international concern is Israel’s expected retaliation on Iran for attacking the Jewish state with a barrage of 200 ballistic missiles last week.

Energy markets have been carefully weighing the possibility of a retaliatory strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. The country produces more than 3 million barrels of crude per day, much of it destined for China. Oil opened the week lower as traders awaited more evidence that the crisis would hurt supply infrastructure, while concerns about China’s economic prospects lingered. 

There’s also concern about the potential targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

US President Joe Biden has “come out and said he doesn’t support strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. I don’t think the Israelis will follow that,” Ralph Goff, former senior CIA officer and six-time CIA station chief, said at The Cipher Brief 2024 Threat Conference in Sea Island, Georgia. 

“I think they’ll hit at least one site there just to show and remind the Iranians that they can,” Goff added. “And so if ever there was a reason for Iran to go ahead and develop a nuclear weapon, it’ll probably be the result of an Israeli strike on Iran.”

The IDF on Saturday said two bases — in south and central Israel respectively — were hit during last week’s attack, but to little effect. 

“The Iranians have not even ‘touched’ the IAF’s capabilities — not a single squadron has been damaged, not a single aircraft has been damaged, there is not a single runway that is out of order and there is no disruption in our operations,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday. 

Gallant and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke Sunday, with the Pentagon chief citing the “unwavering US commitment to Israel’s security, a ceasefire in Gaza, and a diplomatic resolution that enables citizens to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.”

Ahead of Monday’s commemoration day in Israel, IDF spokesman Hagari said troop levels are reinforced and ready. Eyes are also on the West Bank, where Israel struck down 14 Hamas operatives last week that it said were planning to carry out an attack inspired by Oct. 7. Seven Israelis were killed in a terror attack in Tel Aviv last week that originated from the West Bank. 

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security warned in a joint announcement that the one-year mark since the Hamas attacks “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety.” 

US Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to address the one-year milestone at 4 p.m. Washington time on Monday.  

(Adds map of Iran’s energy infrastructure, details on oil market in 17th paragraph and Austin’s call with Gallant in fourth paragraph from bottom.)

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