China Steel Mills Are Facing a Wave of Bankruptcies, BI Says

(Bloomberg) -- China’s steel crisis is setting the stage for a wave of bankruptcies and speeding a much-needed consolidation of the industry, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Almost three-quarters of the country’s steelmakers suffered losses in the first half and bankruptcy is likely for many of them, Michelle Leung, a senior analyst at BI, said in a note. Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co., Gansu Jiu Steel Group and Anyang Iron & Steel Group Co. face the highest risk, and could be potential acquisition targets, she said.

The three companies didn’t immediately respond to calls seeking comment.

The wave of consolidation will help Beijing encourage more concentration in its steel industry, BI said. The government wants the top five companies to control 40% of the market by 2025 and the top 10 to account for 60%. These targets look “achievable,” although China will still be well behind South Korea and Japan in this respect, Leung said.

China’s persistent property crisis and flagging economic growth are reshaping the country’s massive steel industry, with the head of its biggest producer, China Baowu Steel Group Corp., warning last month of a crisis worse than in 2008 and 2015. A slump in domestic demand has meant mills have increased exports, spurring a trade backlash from countries who say the metal is being dumped at below cost. 

However, China’s steel exports aren’t likely to decline until the end of 2026, as total production falls and more trading partners step up restrictions, according to BI.

On the Wire

China’s housing rescue package offers the best path for putting the country on track to expand around 5%, in the view of most economists, assuming it’s deployed to maximum effect in the face of a real estate crisis expected to last as long as five more years.

China’s banks may carry out a new around of mortgage rate cuts this year to help shore up flagging consumption, the Securities Daily report, citing analysts.

Citigroup Inc.’s expansion plan in China has hit a roadblock with US regulators after the Federal Reserve imposed a penalty on the bank for its data management and risk controls, according to people familiar with the matter.

This Week’s Diary

Monday, Sept. 23:

• Nothing major scheduled

Tuesday, Sept. 24:

• SNEC Energy Storage & Battery Conference and Expo starts in in Shanghai and runs through Friday

Wednesday, Sept. 25:

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 3pm local time
• China’ new quality standards on some steel products effective from Wednesday

Thursday, Sept. 26:

• China Minmetals Industry Finance Forum starts in Shanghai and runs through Friday

Friday, Sept. 27:

• China weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventories, ~3:30 p.m. local time
• China industrial profits for August, 9:30am local time

(Updates with response from companies in third paragraph.)

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