Congo’s Next President Will Be a Key Voice in Green Energy Talks

(Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Republic of Congo votes on Wednesday to elect a president who will play a crucial role in the world’s fight against climate change over the next five years.

The central African nation’s forests, rivers and minerals are key to the future of green development globally and Congo’s next leader will have urgent decisions to make about how they’re used.

President Felix Tshisekedi, who is up for reelection, likes to call Congo the “‘solution country’ for the climate crisis.” But he’s only just begun to make headway on key environmental and energy issues. 

At stake is the protection of one of Earth’s largest carbon sinks, the construction of the world’s biggest hydropower project, and the mineral supply chain for electric-vehicle batteries.

Tshisekedi’s government has signed preliminary deals for the massive Grand Inga hydropower project and for carbon credit initiatives to preserve Congo’s forests. He’s tried to start a state company to trade cobalt, a key battery mineral.

But the 60-year-old president has yet to make the big decisions that will provide the foundations for the development of these resources for years to come.

Companies are clamoring to invest in offsets generated by Congo’s rainforests, which capture about 822 million tons of greenhouse gases each year — nearly twice as much as the UK’s annual emissions. But the government still needs to implement a new regulatory framework so the market can actually function.  

Tshisekedi also complicated the initiative by launching a bidding round for oil and gas exploration permits, some of which overlap with critical ecosystems, to the horror of environmental activists.

The president has defended his decision as necessary to help lift Congolese out of poverty. His top opponent, businessman Moise Katumbi, has called for an end to oil and gas exploration in the Congo Basin, and presidential candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege is a vocal critic of the plan.

“If there is a new president, we can expect the process for awarding oil permits to be reviewed,” said Christian-Geraud Neema Byamungu, a development economist and editor at the China-Global South Project.

Tshisekedi has also been reluctant to start work on the 40,000-megawatt Grand Inga hydro project. The government signed a preliminary deal with Australia’s Fortescue Future Industries in 2020 to build the site and produce green hydrogen. But the two have yet to agree on a common vision, and Fortescue has threatened to pull out. The company didn’t respond to messages requesting comment.

Inga could power all of Congo and beyond: South Africa has long promised to buy sustainable energy from the project. But competing proposals and costs that may reach into the tens of billions of dollars have delayed development.

Congo’s government also needs to decide what to do with its world-leading cobalt industry, which accounts for about 70% of global supply. Concerns about corruption as well as working conditions and child labor at informal mine sites have spurred companies to seek other sources of the material or eliminate it from their batteries altogether. 

About 57% of EV cathode demand now comes from battery chemistries containing cobalt, down from more than 70% in 2018, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Still, demand for cobalt is expected to double by 2030, the Cobalt Institute industry group says. At the moment, most of that metal is processed in China, Congo’s largest trading partner by an order of magnitude. 

The need for green energy minerals like cobalt and copper have meant “both the US and EU have regained interest in the DRC and are determined to counter China’s geopolitical clout in the region,” according to Bryan Bille, principal policy analyst at Benchmark.

But without a plan to clean up the industry, Congo risks missing out on profiting from its near-monopoly cobalt position. And a Tshisekedi victory with no need to campaign for a reelection could reduce his incentive to ensure mining revenue benefits all Congolese, and not just a tiny elite, Neema Byamungu said.

“In a country where political parties are centered around the leader, where the president can’t run for a third term, will Tshisekedi have any incentive to take action to improve the mining sector’s governance or good governance in general?” he said.

Having a credible vote is a crucial first step, Jason Stearns, founder of the Congo Research Group at New York University told Bloomberg.

“The biggest problem with regards to governance is accountability, and this is the best and perhaps the only opportunity the citizenry has to hold its government to account,” he said.

“If the country is not able to solve its political differences through the democratic process, it could lead to significant instability” and that stability is central to international support for economic development, he said.

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