Martial Law Fiasco Casts Doubt Over Korea’s Nuclear Power Push

(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s embrace of nuclear energy has been thrown into doubt as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment case raises the possibility of the opposition coming to power and overhauling the nation’s broader energy strategy.

With Yoon suspended from office because of a botched attempt to impose martial law, his push to build more reactors at home and ramp up exports of Seoul’s nuclear technology is at risk of stalling, alongside a flagship oil and gas discovery. Stocks related to the nuclear sector and the drilling project have already suffered losses due to souring investor sentiment since the political crisis began.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy has pledged to curb emissions by 40% from 2018 levels by 2030 and, while Yoon has come out in support of nuclear, successive governments have been criticized for dragging their feet on adding more renewables like solar and wind. The country is due to update its climate targets by early next year, but the political upheaval has now complicated that.

“Everything is running into an extreme uncertainty,” said Hong Jong-ho, a professor at Seoul National University Graduate School of Environment Studies. “The political shift could prompt South Korea to re-evaluate its broader energy strategy, especially its policies around nuclear and renewable energy.”

Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, Yoon’s most likely successor if he loses the impeachment case, is seen as more climate-friendly. During his campaign in the 2022 presidential election, which he narrowly lost, he pledged to expand renewables, bring forward the country’s 2050 net zero target by a decade, and pushed for stricter emissions targets with early phase-out of coal-fired power plants.

At the same time, he has opposed building new nuclear reactors but is set to allow the use of existing facilities. Any roll-back in nuclear policy will contrast with a global resurgence in interest in the low-carbon energy source, as countries from China and Japan to the UAE and France, and tech giants like Microsoft Corp. push to build or revive reactors to help reduce their carbon footprints.

Yoon’s administration reversed his predecessor’s anti-nuclear stance and aimed to increase the share of nuclear energy in electricity generation from roughly 30% in 2023 to nearly 36% by 2038. 

But critics argued that Yoon’s nuclear-centric strategy sidelined the potential of renewable energy, which aligns more closely with global green initiatives. At the same time, his push for oil and gas exploration off the country’s east coast also faced a backlash from climate activists and opposition lawmakers, who claimed these policies undermine the decarbonization efforts of the world’s eighth-biggest emitter.

For now, all eyes are on South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which must decide whether or not to validate Yoon’s impeachment within 180 days. If it does, an election must be held for a new president within 60 days. 

All this could delay the parliamentary approval needed for the country’s long-term energy roadmap plan, at a time when the nation is under pressure to beef up its emissions targets. Despite being ranked at close to the bottom on the Climate Change Performance Index of nearly 70 countries and regions, its response to threats of a warming planet has never emerged as a key policy issue in parliamentary or presidential elections. 

“The change in leadership following the impeachment process has the potential to drive positive momentum for climate action and elevate South Korea’s leadership in this field,” said Oh Dongjae, head of gas at non-profit organization, Solutions for Our Climate. “We expect to see many updated climate agendas emerge during and after the uncertain political situation, and this would motivate a fresh uptake of ambition, regardless of the outcome.”

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