California’s ‘Ambitious’ Offshore Wind Goal Seen as Unachievable

(Bloomberg) -- California’s plan to bring offshore wind farms to its coastline by 2035 as part of the state’s push to get more energy from renewable sources may be a tall order, according to BloombergNEF.

The California Public Utilities Commission has just mandated that the state build more than 56 gigawatts of clean energy over the next 11 years, with 8% of that coming from offshore wind. While some initial steps to erect wind turbines off California’s coast have been pursued by developers, nothing has been built yet.

“For offshore wind, it appears ambitious,” BloombergNEF analyst Chelsea Jean-Michel said, adding that she doesn’t think the 2035 target is achievable. “We estimate California will fall short of its target,” she added, forecasting that the state will have just 1.1 gigawatts of offshore wind by that time. A gigawatt of electricity is enough to power about 750,000 homes.

Offshore wind development is in the early stages off the West Coast, where the federal government only sold leases to install turbines in December 2022, and deeper depths require floating technology that hasn’t been widely deployed. Such projects take years to permit and build.

“Regulatory uncertainty, waters over a kilometer deep, high costs and the lack of a local supply chain will make it difficult for California to meet its installation goals,” Jean-Michel said.

Developers hoping to introduce offshore wind to the state’s Central Coast are already facing intense opposition from conservationists, an added challenge for an industry struggling with higher costs and supply-chain disruptions.

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