Colombia Looks to Future Without Oil in $40 Billion Transition Plan

(Bloomberg) -- Colombia is set to announce a $40 billion investment plan aimed at replacing fossil-fuel export revenues that are expected to decline after the country ended new oil and gas exploration two years ago. 

Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister, said in an interview during New York Climate Week that she will make the plan public at an economic fair on Oct. 2. She hopes that as much as $10 billion will come from international financial institutions and developed countries.“All of this is a huge economic transformation,” Muhamad said. “The portfolio of investments is around developing sectors that we think could start replacing oil revenues.” She added that the money will go to nature-based climate solutions, clean energy and electrification of transport, as well as projects that improve agricultural practices and protect biodiversity. 

Muhamad will meet with officials this week to start the process of negotiating a deal as soon as Oct. 21, when Colombia hosts the annual biodiversity summit called COP16.

Muhamad said the package will mimic the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) that have been signed between rich countries and developing countries, with a goal of speeding up the move away from fossil fuels. So far, South Africa has started to implement its $8 billion JETP deal, which will involve money coming from both public and private sources. 

Further JETPs have been signed for $20 billion to Indonesia, $15 billion to Vietnam and $1.5 billion to Senegal. Each of the JETPs are focused on reducing a country’s dependence on fossil fuels through early retirements of coal power plants and increasing renewable energy.

However, the deals have struggled amid political divisions among ministries in the recipient countries and heavy bureaucracy. If Muhamad succeeds at forging a “JETP-like” arrangement, as she described it, it will be done using a new approach where multilateral development banks play a bigger role in terms of both finance and technical expertise.

Colombia’s deal will be marshalled by the Inter-American Development Bank, with the US playing an informal role as the main coordinator, according to people familiar with the matter. Other countries, including Morocco and the Philippines, have also signaled interest in similar deals but are further behind in the process, the people said.

It’s unclear whether and how private financial institutions would participate, which is a departure from one of the central features of the original JETPs. Those were premised on the involvement of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, a global finance industry consortium, which committed to mobilize private capital to support the energy transition in developing countries.

Colombia is among 13 countries that have endorsed the Fossil Fuel Nonproliferation Treaty, which calls for ending the expansion of new fossil-fuel projects — something scientists say is necessary to meet global climate goals. But its economy has struggled after investment fell dramatically across sectors last year and gross domestic product grew less than 1%.

The country has also battled wildfires and faced water shortages. On top of that, Colombia expects energy shortfalls and has been forced to consider importing expensive liquefied natural gas. Still, it’s committed to its plan not to issue new oil and gas exploration licenses, Muhamad said. Oil and coal account for around half of Colombia's exports.

That’s why Muhamad hopes that other countries will help Colombia follow through on an ambitious climate plan. “That’s a huge task for our country,” she said.

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(Updates with details on JETP deals in fifth and sixth paragraphs.)

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