UK Power Prices Climb as Light Winds to Tighten Market on Friday

(Bloomberg) -- UK power prices are increasing as wind generation is forecast to drop on Friday amid freezing temperatures, raising the prospect of another market squeeze.

UK day-ahead power prices are at £392 ($482) per megawatt-hour at 5 p.m, according to Epex data. That’s higher than the £300 per megawatt-hour in the hourly day-ahead auction for delivery on Wednesday, when the grid operator issued a market warning due to an insufficient buffer between predicted supply and demand.

The high prices this week show the risk of building out wind turbines without sufficient back up for days when it’s dark, cold and windless. While wind output has rebounded to about 11 gigawatts on Thursday, it’s forecast to dip again to about 3 gigawatts on Friday. That comes as cold weather boosts heating demand, putting pressure on the UK’s electricity system for the second time this week.

The tight market is giving some power producers the opportunity to capitalize on the high prices, with gas-fired plants owned by Vitol SA and Uniper SE earning millions to plug the shortfall.

On Wednesday, Britain increased power and gas imports from the European Union to cover higher near-term energy needs. 

Gas flows from Belgium via the interconnector pipeline jumped to the highest since 2021 Wednesday afternoon, according to grid data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes decreased again this morning, and the UK has secured enough liquefied natural gas cargoes to limit “any further upside to near-curve gas contracts on signs of stable supply,” consultancy Inspired Plc said in a note.

On Wednesday, the tight market pushed intraday power prices above £1,778.34 per megawatt-hour. Those pressures could ease on Friday after European gas prices declined, according to Florence Schmit, a European energy strategist at Rabobank said. 

“We see the same weak wind forecasts tomorrow, but gas prices have fallen a little in the last two days, which could reduce the price pressure,” she said.

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