European Gas Extends Losses Amid Rising Supplies, Mild Weather

(Bloomberg) -- Natural gas prices in Europe started the year extending the sharp drop seen in the last month as rising flows eased concerns that supplies could lack during the winter.

Benchmark European gas for next month dropped as much as 6.2% to 66 euros a megawatt-hour on Monday, falling for an ninth day in the longest streak of losses in seven years. More liquefied natural gas is heading to Europe, while mild temperatures are set to reduce demand for the fuel. 

European gas tumbled almost 30% last month after high volatility, with prices rising to record highs before Christmas amid declining Russian flows, then falling sharply as more U.S. tankers started to turn to Europe, bringing relief to the markets. 

U.K. gas trading on ICE Futures Europe were closed for holidays.

European gas prices were “pressured by lower heating demand (as temperatures rose significantly above normal) and higher LNG supply,” said Engie EnergyScan in a report on Monday. “The moderation in Asia LNG imports led to a strong increase in LNG flows to Europe in December.”

Easing prices are pushing down power rates, with German power for next year slipping 0.5% to 119.5 euros on EEX exchange. Carbon-emission permits were stable at 80.7 euros a ton.

Global liquefied natural gas exports jumped to a record last month as projects ramped-up output and utilities boosted imports to restock inventories, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Qatar, the U.S. and Australia -- the world’s top three exporters of the super-chilled fuel -- all boosted output in December compared to the previous year.

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Unseasonably mild temperatures are forecast in the South and central portions of the continent this week, Maxar said in an emailed report on Monday. Below normal temperatures are seen across the North in the beginning of next week, trending warmer later on. 

Yet prices remain far higher than normal after more than tripling last year. High gas prices have fueled inflation, forced industries to curb output and triggered the collapse of power suppliers.

Gazprom PJSC increased exports to its main buyers in Europe, Turkey and China last year, yet flows remained below pre-Covid levels as the producer capped deliveries to Europe as a whole, amid the continent’s worst energy supply crunch in decades.

Russia’s exports have been closely scrutinized as tight supplies in Europe sent prices soaring to records. The Russian company has been sending only as much gas to EU clients as it’s obliged to under long-term contracts. 

Gas shipments into Germany via Russia’s Yamal-Europe link have been halted for 14 days, adding to the uncertainty.

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest thermal coal exporters, has paused on Saturday coal shipments in January to secure dwindling supplies for domestic power plants. The decision could increase LNG needs from China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which together received 73% of Indonesian coal exports in 2021, according to Engie EnergyScan.

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