Europe Energy Prices Swing on French Nuclear Outlook, Weather

(Bloomberg) -- Energy prices in Europe fluctuated as traders weighed concerns about nuclear generation in France against a recent reprieve from the region's crisis.

French power contracts for January surged as much as 24% after Electricite de France SA issued yet another warning about its troubled nuclear fleet. Benchmark front-month gas erased an earlier gain but is still up for the week.

EDF cut its 2022 nuclear-power production forecast, citing repair work on some of its reactors and strikes that curtailed output in recent weeks. France is generally an energy exporter, and the health of its embattled nuclear fleet is vital in helping the region withstand an historic energy crisis, following gas supply cuts by Russia.

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Recent mild weather and ample gas stockpiles have given Europe some respite, but risks remain. Any supply disruptions are causing price spikes as fuel flows are tight, highlighting threats for the region when temperatures inevitably drop to winter levels.

"While we continue to see above normal temperatures, that doesn't mean it's still not getting colder, so residential heating demand will soon have a greater effect," said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS in London.

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EDF has extended to next year outages at four reactors that were due back online in the coming weeks, with startup now projected for late January and February because of inspections and repairs. The French government is set to fully nationalize the utility in an attempt to ramp up repairs and build out more capacity. It's likely the country will rely on neighbors like the UK and Germany to send it power to keep the lights on for some of this winter.

It's not clear whether existing gas supplies from Russia will continue through the coming months, adding to pressure on alternatives including nuclear and wind generation. A cold snap in Asia could divert seaborne fuel cargoes to that region. Next year, Europe's gas shortage would be even wider.

"The underlying issue -- lack of gas supplies from Russia will take longer to fix," analysts at Sanford C Bernstein & Co. said in a report on Friday. "Therefore, we see little reason why spot gas prices will not rise again as Europe will need to compete for available LNG cargoes and supplies against Asia, particularly as China reopens in the future.

French power for January reached 1,300 per megawatt-hour before paring some gains. Dutch front-month gas futures, Europe's benchmark, traded 3.1% lower at 121.55 by 10:45 a.m. in Amsterdam after climbing earlier. The UK equivalent gas contract fell 2.2%, also erasing an earlier advance.

Gas prices are taking a breather after a strong rebound earlier in the week, according to EnergyScan, the analysis platform of Engie SA. Despite net withdrawals from gas storage in some countries, Europe's total stocks continue to rise, keeping prices in check, it said.

--With assistance from , and .

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