China May Maintain Rapid Pace of Atomic Power Reactor Approvals

(Bloomberg) -- China could approve another 100 nuclear reactors over the coming decade, according to an industry lobby group, as the nation turns itself into the world’s biggest operator of atomic power and potentially a major exporter of the technology.

After greenlighting a record 11 reactors so far in 2024, Beijing could commit to a “realistic target” of 10 new approvals each year through 2035, Tian Jiashu, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Nuclear Society, said at the BloombergNEF Summit in Shanghai on Tuesday.

China is already on track to leapfrog the US and France to become the global leader for nuclear power generation by the end of the decade. It has more reactors under construction than any other nation after approving 10 in each of the last two years. However, maintaining that pace over the next decade is likely to require more private capital to fund what’s largely been a state-led effort.

Such a rate of expansion would see China’s nuclear power capacity almost quadrupling to 200 gigawatts by 2035, enough to meet 10% of electricity demand, Tian said. It could then double to 400 gigawatts by 2060, supplying 16% of total consumption at that point, he said.

China’s nuclear power industry has strong momentum at the moment, but it will be challenging to keep it going at the current pace. So far, reactors have only be placed in coastal areas, but a lack of sites would require them being built inland in areas that pose pollution and water management challenges. Ensuring safety will also be crucial, as any accident could derail development and have major political blowback.

While other countries have slowed the pace of nuclear rollouts since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, China has pushed ahead. International interest in the stable and emissions-free energy source has revived in the last few years as countries look for ways to decarbonize their grids. As one of only a handful of suppliers of the technology, Beijing is positioning itself to become a lower-cost exporter to the developing world.

China is focused on the Hualong One, a so-called third generation reactor with enhanced safety systems. It also brought the world’s first fourth-generation reactor online last year, and is developing a small modular reactor called Linglong One.  

State-owned firms — including China National Nuclear Power Co., State Power Investment Corp. and China General Nuclear Power Corp. — have long dominated China’s nuclear industry, but the capital-heavy sector has been calling for reforms to attract more private investment.

It’s likely that the amount of non-state investment in companies could rise to about half from around 20% at the moment, Tian said. “The mixture of shareholders will enhance quality and investment efficiency.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.