Hurricane Rafael Menaces Florida Keys on Path to US Gulf

(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Rafael is quickly strengthening as it churns toward the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to bring damaging winds and heavy rains to populated areas from the Cayman Islands to South Florida.

Winds continued to speed up early Wednesday, hitting 90 miles (150 kilometers) an hour, and making Rafael a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm “could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today,” the US National Hurricane Center said in an update at 4 a.m. New York time.

Even if Rafael weakens slightly over Cuba, it will likely re-emerge as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday, according to the agency. It’s forecast to bring deluges and mudslides to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The Florida Keys could also see localized flooding from the system’s outer bands starting in the next 24 hours, followed by possible tornadoes, according to a bulletin from the National Weather Service. 

After that, forecasters are less certain about Rafael’s trajectory. The storm could veer west and dissipate over open Gulf waters, or it could be steered into the central Gulf coast by a trough coming off a separate storm system. Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. are among the oil producers that evacuated some staff from platforms ahead of Rafael. 

If it turns toward the coast, “we’d be looking at a weakening tropical storm at landfall, which would hopefully help mitigate significant impacts,” said Adam Douty, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Rafael is the 11th hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin this season. Forecasters at Colorado State University — which publishes an annual outlook — had predicted the season would be “extremely active,” producing 12 hurricanes before formally ending Nov. 30. 

(Updates with latest details from US National Hurricane Center in second and third paragraphs.)

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