Arctic Weather Pattern Risks Cold Start to Europe’s Spring

(Bloomberg) -- Europe faces a cold snap this month as forecasters brace for an unusual weather event originating in the Arctic, threatening to bolster heating demand just as spring gets underway.

A weather pattern known as a sudden stratospheric warming is becoming more likely and is expected to also curb wind-power generation, according to meteorologists and data from Weather Services International. 

A similar weather pattern fueled the “Beast from the East” that plunged the UK and Ireland into a prolonged and deadly cold spell in 2018, though March’s conditions aren’t forecast to be near as severe. Still, a cold start to spring could increase gas demand and put pressure on inventories that remain lower than usual for the time of year. 

Weather Pattern

Average temperatures for early March are forecast to drop below the 30-year average across northwest and southeast Europe, before a broader warm-up across the continent that will last until closer to the middle of the month.

However, a vortex of winds high above the Arctic is weakening and showing signs of splitting, and could be weakened further by a rapid rise in temperatures. That warming higher up in the atmosphere risks then creating a domino effect that can reverse the direction of winds and create a high pressure system that pulls in frigid lower-altitude Arctic air across Europe, according to Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist with Atmospheric G2.

“The stratosphere continues to be a big topic of conversation as the winter ends,” he said.

Polar Vortex Weakening

The polar vortex weakens and eventually disappears naturally each spring — an event known as “final warming” — but it’s unclear if the March weakening will be the last until the next one reforms in late summer, Pedrini said.

The weather pattern will likely drive up heating demand for late March while cutting wind-power generation, according to meteorologists at MetDesk. Wind speeds in Britain, Germany and Spain are forecast to briefly surge early in the month, before dropping.

Rainfall across northwestern Europe is also expected to be low throughout March, which is often a predictor of low wind speeds, according to weather analysis from BloombergNEF. Lower-than-average wind speeds were reported in seven months of 2024, leading to a 6% drop for German wind output compared with 2023, that analysis showed.

Solar power, however, is expected to fare better across Europe for much of March, according to MetDesk. 

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