Rystad Energy reveals key hotspots driving near-field exploration in 2025

Energy operators across the globe are prioritising infrastructure-led exploration (ILX) prospects, focusing on a reliable avenue that capitalises on existing production hubs and pipeline networks to commercialise smaller discoveries that might otherwise remain untapped, according to Rystad Energy.

The trend is all set to transform how oil and gas players explore for new barrels, moving away from high-risk exploration plays in light of a shrinking pool of prospective basins as well as several other factors.

As price volatility, growing sustainability pressures and rigorous capital discipline take centre stage, Rystad Energy estimated exploration budgets this year remaining at around $50 billion. According to the company’s analysis, Indonesia, the US and Norway will emerge as ILX hotspots this year.

The surge in ILX activity reflects a strategic push for cost-effective resource recovery, signaling a dynamic year ahead for near-field exploration, generally moving away from high costs and scarce frontier exploration prospects for greenfield exploration, Rystad Energy said.

The global oil and gas industry is now focused on highly prospective basins, with explorers increasingly prioritizing low-cost, near-field prospects that can deliver quick returns. Conventional exploration spending has declined significantly, from its peak of over $117 billion annually in 2013 to around $50 billion per year in recent years, Rystad Energy said.

Unlike greenfield projects that require significant capital for standalone infrastructure, ILX benefits from lower development costs, shorter lead times, and reduced emissions. The strategy has so far proven to be a success, with the last five years boasting nearly 900 ILX wildcat wells drilled, achieving a 42% exploration success rate over this period, significantly exceeding the global exploration success rate of 32%. 

“With strong success rates and substantial resource additions, ILX drilling is vital for sustaining production and maximising infrastructure use. As the industry adapts, ILX remains a key driver of upstream exploration, enhancing efficiency and unlocking new reserves,” said Aatisha Mahajan, Vice President, Exploration Research, Rystad Energy.

Of the 100 ILX wells planned for 2025, Southeast Asia is set to witness the highest activity, followed by Western Europe and North America. In Southeast Asia, ILX drilling is spread across four countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand – spanning 15 distinct basins, highlighting the region’s diverse ILX opportunities. In Western Europe, ILX activity is concentrated entirely in Norway. Meanwhile, the deepwater region of the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to be a major ILX hotspot in 2025, Rystad Energy said.