Our energy future is about all-energies, all-technologies and all-peoples

The starting point for any discussion on future energy pathways has to be grounded in reality rather than ideology, be data driven and address all the great interlinked energy challenges of our age: ensuring and expanding energy accessibility, meeting rising energy demand, improving energy security, maintaining energy affordability and reducing emissions.

OPEC advocates a balanced approach where nothing and no-one is dismissed. We need to embrace all-energies, leverage all available technologies, and consider the needs of all peoples.

Four key points demonstrate why this approach is vital. First, global energy demand is set to rise. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2024 sees global primary energy demand increasing by 24% to 2050. The reasons for this include an increasing population, rising urbanisation, an expanding middle class, emergent energy-intensive technologies, as well as the need to bring energy to billions of people that still go without.

Population, urbanistaion and growth

The global population is set to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, up from over 8 billion in 2023. By 2030, another 500 million people are expected to move into cities across the world. This urbanisation necessitates the addition of around 22 cities the size of Cairo’s metro area. The fifth billionth person is also expected to join the middle class before 2030, up from over four billion today.

Additionally, emerging technologies will challenge energy infrastructure. Artificial Intelligence expansion and the corresponding demand for computing data centres, for example, is driving the fastest growth in US power demand for decades, outpacing grid expansions. This can be viewed in other countries and regions too.

We all want lower emissions, but we cannot ignore the world’s growing need for ample, reliable and affordable energy.

Investing in all-energies

Second, our energy future requires massive investment – in all energies.

In this regard, calls to stop investing in new oil projects are gravely out of step with energy realities. Hydrocarbons make up about 80% of the global energy mix, with oil comprising around 30%. These huge contributions are largely unchanged since the 1980s.

In contrast, despite $9.5 trillion spent on ‘transitioning’ over the past two decades, wind and solar make up around 4% of today’s global energy mix, while electric vehicles (EVs) have a global penetration rate of between 2% and 3%.

This is not to undermine the importance of renewables or EVs, especially as their market share will increase. Instead, it highlights the scale of the energy challenges facing us for those rashly calling to stop investing in oil.

OPEC estimates that no new investment in oil production would see supplies fall by 23 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, resulting in huge volatility.

Third, this instability would be further exacerbated by the fact that global oil demand continues to rise, especially as policymakers reconsider unrealistic net zero policies amid their impact on populations.

At OPEC, we do not see a peak in oil demand by 2050. In our WOO 2024, oil demand rises to around 120 mb/d in 2050.

Fourth, it is crucial to recognise that long-term projections of strong oil demand growth are largely driven by the non-OECD.

Billions of people in the developing world are still playing energy catch-up. For instance, almost 1.2 billion live in areas so dark that they provide no statistical evidence of electricity usage from space, while 2.3 billion still lack clean cooking solutions.

Bridging the gap with inclusive solutions

To mitigate energy poverty, policymakers must ensure just and inclusive energy transitions that reflect each nations’ stages of development, in keeping with the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’. After all, everyone deserves comparable standards of living, electricity and clean cooking. No one should be left behind.

It is important to stress that OPEC Member Countries are investing in renewables, oil, and other energies to meet consumer needs. They are also improving efficiencies, implementing low-emissions solutions and mobilising cleaner technologies like carbon capture utilisation and storage.

Here in Egypt, a country with significant and diverse energy resources, I am sure the EGYPES 2025 event will highlight that there is no ‘one-size-fits all’ prescription to overcome our climate and energy challenges.

It is inclusive dialogue, international cooperation and realistic solutions that will be central to helping build a sustainable energy future for us all.