Why the global digital economy will be powered by natural gas for decades

Power demand projections for data centres is at the forefront of the energy community these days. Given the proliferation of digitisation around the world, from artificial intelligence (AI) solutions to quantum computing, and the data centres needed to keep them in play, such an industry focus is hardly surprising.

But it’s not just about traditional data centres. Industry 4.0 and the age of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) demand hyperscale ones, i.e. somewhere in the region of 5,000 servers housed at a site of around 10,000 square feet or more.

For many forecasters, including International Energy Agency (IEA) and S&P Global Commodity Insights, the development carries the potential of fundamentally altering the trajectory of global power demand.

Data centres for a changed world

Such data centres will likely consume 100MW or more; nearly 20 times as much as the 5MW demand of older data centres and an annual demand equivalent of 350,000 to 400,000 electric cars.

At a very basic consumer level, these data centres are emblematic of a changed world where a single ChatGPT query requires 2.9Wh of electricity, compared with 0.3Wh for a routine Google search, according to the IEA.

At this rate, come the end of the current decade, the world could potentially be looking at 250TWh or more of additional power baseload, forget about peak load. With such a call on the world’s power generation capacity, many reckon natural gas-fired plants and not renewable energy sources will likely provide a near-to-medium-term solution.

The rise of gas economies

Whole countries, and not just energy companies and large consumers, are coming around to this conclusion. At the recently concluded CERAWeek, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reminded the world that natural gas currently accounts for 43% of his country’s power production.

“There is simply no physical way that wind, solar and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas,” he said, adding that the fossil fuel was very much a part of the Trump administration’s plan to “re-industrialise” as well further digitise the US economy.

This line of thinking is no longer unique in the developed world. Furthermore, emerging markets, many of which are a part of the global information technology revolution of recent decades, are even less coy about deploying natural gas to service their power sector needs.

Indian Energy Minister speaks to Energy Connects

"We intend to increase the deployment of natural gas from 6% to 15% of our energy mix. India is among more than 150 nations in the world that remain interested in natural gas. We must be realistic enough not to stifle investments in traditional energy, given elevating living standards and economic growth remain our key priorities,."
- His Excellency Shri Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, speaking to Energy Connects at India Energy Week 2025

Take India for instance, a global IT powerhouse, where future incremental data centre demand will add to an already robust power demand growth rate. In 2024, the country’s power demand grew by nearly 8% on an annualised basis, according to Fitch Ratings.

India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, His Excellency Shri Hardeep Singh Puri, told Energy Connects at India Energy Week 2025 that he remains a big believer in the “Gas Economy.”

"We intend to increase the deployment of natural gas from 6% to 15% of our energy mix. India is among more than 150 nations in the world that remain interested in natural gas. We must be realistic enough not to stifle investments in traditional energy, given elevating living standards and economic growth remain our key priorities,” he said.

Traditional energy meets digital synergy

Therefore, if digital is here to stay, so is traditional energy – something that industry majors are keen to flag. The likely surge in demand may require additional gas-fired power generation capacity to be built, no matter how expensive.

In December, ExxonMobil and Chevron revealed plans for entering the data centre energy provision sphere with plans to develop natural gas plants with carbon capture technology, even though both majors said they weren’t interested in starting a power generation or electricity retail business.

For their part, the big four technology firms – Google’s parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta – have so far resisted the urge to source traditional power for their data centres, opting to buy from renewable energy sources. However, this is unlikely to last, and there already appears to be a thaw in their stance.

Microsoft’s Vice President of Energy Bobby Hollis recently told CNBC that his company has long recognised the necessity of fossil fuels, noting that the company is "open" to using natural gas with carbon capture only if the project is "commercially viable and cost competitive."

Surging power demand

Power demand for data centres is expected to grow between 10% and 15% per year between now and 2030, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. It’s a surge that cannot be supported by the current renewable energy growth trajectory to the end of the decade.

So, expect more technology outfits, both large and small, to shift their stance to support their growth. Admittedly, some are flirting with the idea of supporting the increase of nuclear energy capacity.

But many of the larger nuclear power projects – including those that involve the restarting of mothballed reactors - are unlikely to be near-term solutions that can potentially come to the data centre industry’s rescue before 2035.

Inevitably, the global digital economy and the global gas economy will be joined at the hip for a couple of decades at the very least.